Global EV Outlook 2021 Accelerating ambitions despite the pandemic The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries: Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 1 Abstract IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle (EV) and charging infrastructure deployment, energy use, CO2 emissions and battery demand. The report includes policy recommendations that incorporate learning from frontrunner markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders that consider policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption. This edition also features an update of the electric heavy-duty vehicle models coming onto commercial markets and slotted for release in the coming few years, and on the status of development of megachargers. It compares the electric vehicle supply equipment per EV with the recommended AFID targets. It also analyses the impact of EV uptake on governments’ revenue from fuel taxation. Finally, it makes available for the first time two online tools: the Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections, and policy measures worldwide. Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 2 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Table of content Table of contents Executive summary ................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................ 8 Overview .............................................................................................................. 9 Electric Vehicles Initiative ......................................................................... 10 Electric Vehicles Initiative aims to accelerate EV deployment .................. 11 Electric Vehicles Initiative campaigns ..................................................... 12 EV30@30 and the Drive to Zero campaigns support EV deployment ..... 13 Implementing actions of the EV30@30 campaign ...................................... 14 Trends and developments in electric vehicle markets ......... 15 Trends and developments in electric light-duty vehicles ...................... 16 More than 10 million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2020 with battery electric models driving the expansion ...................................... 17 Electric car registrations increased in major markets in 2020 despite the Covid pandemic ................................................................................................ 18 Electric cars had a record year in 2020, with Europe overtaking China as the biggest market ...................................................................................... 19 Consumer spending on EVs continues to rise, while government support stabilises .............................................................................................. 21 More electric car models are available; ranges start to plateau ................ 22 Automakers entice customers with a wide menu including electric SUV models ...................................................................................................... 23 China leads in electric LCV sales with Europe not far behind and Korea entering the market .......................................................................................... 24 18 of the 20 largest OEMs have committed to increase the offer and sales of EVs ...................................................................................................... 25 Manufacturers’ electrification targets align with the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario .................................................................................... 26 Trends and developments in electric heavy-duty vehicles ................... 27 Electric bus and truck registrations expanded in major markets in 2020 ...............................................................................................................28 Electric heavy-duty vehicle models are broadening ....................................29 Types of zero-emission HDVs expand, and driving range lengthens .......30 Private sector commitment and other electrification trends .................31 Private sector demand for zero-emission commercial vehicles amplifies market signals for OEMs to develop EVs ....................................32 Climate Group’s EV100 Initiative update on private sector commitments .....................................................................................................33 Battery demand lagged EV sales in 2020; Europe sees highest rise in demand ..............................................................................................................34 Pandemic spreads popularity of electric micromobility ...............................35 Korea takes a lead in deploying fuel cell electric vehicles .........................36 Deployment of electric vehicle-charging infrastructure ........................37 Publicly accessible slow and fast chargers increased to 1.3 million in 2020 ...............................................................................................................38 Installation of publicly accessible chargers expanded sevenfold in the last five years; Covid-19 muted the pace in 2020 while China still leads ............................................................................................................39 Most countries in Europe did not achieve 2020 AFID targets for publicly accessible chargers ...........................................................................40 Planning needs to start now for megachargers to enable long-distance trucking ..............................................................................................................41 Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment .................. 42 Are we entering the era of the electric vehicle? ......................................43 More than 20 countries have electrification targets or ICE bans for cars, and 8 countries plus the European Union have announced net-zero pledges ..............................................................................................................47 Policies affecting the electric light-duty vehicle market ........................48 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 3 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Table of content Policies buoyed electric car sales in 2020 despite the Covid-19 pandemic ........................................................................................................... 49 Subsidies have been instrumental in boosting EV sales during the pandemic ........................................................................................................... 51 Current zero-emission light-duty vehicle policies and incentives in selected countries ............................................................................................ 52 Strong policies underpin major electric car markets ................................... 53 China’s major cities have implemented a broad array of EV promotion policies ............................................................................................................... 54 Governments roll-out plans for interconnected charging infrastructure networks ............................................................................................................ 59 Markets for EV battery supply heat up .......................................................... 61 Policies affecting the electric heavy-duty vehicle market ..................... 63 Current zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle policies and incentives in selected countries ............................................................................................ 64 Public policies prepare for expected surge in electric heavy-duty vehicles .............................................................................................................. 65 Government investment in charging infrastructure for HDVs is slowly picking up .......................................................................................................... 68 Links to sources for figures and tables in Chapter 2 ................................... 69 Prospects for electric vehicle deployment ............................ 71 Outlook for electric mobility ..................................................................... 72 Passenger cars drive the growth of electric vehicles to 2030.................... 74 EVs penetrate all road transport modes in the short term.......................... 75 Europe and China continue to lead global EV markets .............................. 77 Electrification of road transport accelerates, but at varying speeds ......... 78 Charging infrastructure .............................................................................81 Private charging for electric light-duty vehicles will dominate in numbers and capacity ......................................................................................82 Charging points for LDVs expand to over 200 million and supply 550 TWh in the Sustainable Development Scenario ..................................83 Implications of electric mobility ................................................................85 Annual battery demand grows twenty-fold in the Sustainable Development Scenario ....................................................................................86 Electric vehicles diversify the transport energy mix ....................................87 EVs account for a minor share of global electricity consumption in 2030 ...............................................................................................................88 Net reduction of GHG emissions from EVs increases over time ...............89 GHG emission benefits from EVs multiply as electricity generation decarbonises .....................................................................................................90 Measures are needed to balance reduced revenue from fuel taxes associated with EV uptake ..............................................................................91 Annex ........................................................................................ 92 Abbreviations and acronyms ..........................................................................93 Units of measure ..............................................................................................94 Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................95 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 4 Executive summary IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Executive summary PAGE | 5 Executive summary IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Global EV Outlook 2021 Strong momentum in electric vehicle markets despite the pandemic There were 10 million electric cars on the world’s roads at the end of 2020, following a decade of rapid growth. Electric car registrations increased by 41% in 2020, despite the pandemic-related worldwide downturn in car sales in which global car sales dropped 16%. Around 3 million electric cars were sold globally (a 4.6% sales share), and Europe overtook the People’s Republic of China (“China”) as the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) market for the first time. Electric bus and truck registrations also expanded in major markets, reaching global stocks of 600 000 and 31 000 respectively. The resilience of EV sales in the face of the pandemic rests on three main pillars: • Supportive regulatory frameworks: even before the pandemic many countries were strengthening key policies such as CO2 emissions standards and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates. By the end of 2020, more than 20 countries had announced bans on the sales of conventional cars or mandated all new sales to be ZEVs. • Additional incentives to safeguard EV sales from the economic downturn: some European countries increased their purchase incentives and China delayed the phase-out of its subsidy scheme. • The number of EV models expanded and battery cost continued to fall. Vehicle manufacturers announced increasingly ambitious electrification plans. Out of the world’s top 20 vehicle manufacturers, which represented around 90% of new car registrations in 2020, 18 have stated plans to widen their portfolio of models and to rapidly scale up the production of light-duty electric vehicles. The model availability of electric heavy-duty vehicles is also broadening, with four major truck manufacturers indicating an all-electric future. Consumer spending on electric car purchases increased to USD 120 billion in 2020. In parallel, governments across the world spent USD 14 billion to support electric car sales, up 25% from 2019, mostly from stronger incentives in Europe. Nonetheless, the share of government incentives in total spending on electric cars has decreased over the past five years, suggesting that EVs are becoming increasingly attractive to consumers. The near-term outlook for EV sales is bright. In the first-quarter of 2021, global electric car sales rose by around 140% compared to the same period in 2020, driven by sales in China of around 500 000 vehicles and in Europe of around 450 000. US sales more than doubled relative to the first-quarter of 2020, albeit from a much lower base. EVs are set to be a more common sight on the world’s roads in the 2020s Existing policies around the world suggest healthy growth over this decade: in the Stated Policies Scenario, the EV stock across all modes (except two/three-wheelers) reaches 145 million in 2030, accounting for 7% of the road vehicle fleet. Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 6 Executive summary IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . EV markets could be significantly larger if governments accelerate efforts to reach climate goals. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, the global EV fleet reaches 230 million vehicles in 2030 (excluding two/three-wheelers), a stock share of 12%. The expanding fleet of EVs will continue to reduce well-to-wheel GHG emissions, with the net savings relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles increasing over time depending on the pace at which electricity generation decarbonises. In 2030, in the Stated Policies Scenario, the global EV fleet reduces GHG emissions by more than one-third compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle fleet; in the Sustainable Development Scenario, the level rises to two-thirds. Policies need to leverage momentum to further accelerate electrification Even with the recent success of EV deployment, reaching a trajectory consistent with climate goals is a formidable challenge. It requires stronger ambition and action from all countries. Advances in battery technology and mass manufacturing will continue to drive down the cost of EVs. But the 2020s will need to see more than just the mass adoption of electric light-duty vehicles to meet climate goals. Governments will also need to put in place policies to promote the roll-out of zero- emission vehicles in the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle segments and the correponding fast-charging infrastructure. In the short term, countries can continue to implement, enforce and tighten measures such as CO2 and fuel economy standards and EV mandates.Taxing gasoline and diesel at rates that reflect their environmental and human health impacts can provide government revenue, reduce their negative impacts and hasten the transition to electric mobility. Differentiated taxation of vehicles and fuels that reflect their environmental performance can further align markets with the climate benefits of EVs. In order for electric vehicles to attain their full potential to mitigate carbon emissions, critical progress is required to decarbonise electricity generation, to integrate electric vehicles in power systems, to build charging infrastructure and to advance sustainable battery manufacturing and their recycling. Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 7 Executive summary IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Electric vehicles across all transport modes had steady growth over the last decade Global electric vehicle stock by region (left) and transport mode (right), 2010-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: PLDVs = passenger light-duty vehicles, LCVs = light-commercial vehicles. Electric vehicles include battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Europe includes EU27, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and United Kingdom. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2021); CAAM (2021); EAFO (2021); EV Volumes (2021) and Marklines (2021). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 M illi on China Europe United States Other 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PLDVs LCVs Buses Trucks Region: Transport mode: about:blank about:blank about:blank about:blank about:blank Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 8 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Introduction Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 9 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Overview Vehicle manufacturers and policy makers are boosting their attention and actions related to electric vehicles (EVs). EV technologies such as full battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric models are attactive options to help reach environmental, societal and health objectives. In addition to being two- to four-times more efficient than conventional internal combustion engine models, EVs can reduce reliance on oil- based fuels and, if running on low-carbon power, can deliver significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Plus, with zero tailpipe emissions, EVs are well suited to help solve air pollution issues. Moreover, EVs are driving advances in battery technology – a key issue for industrial competitiveness in the transition to clean energy. EV fleets are expanding at a fast pace in several of the world’s largest vehicle markets. The costs of batteries and EVs are dropping. Charging infrastructure is expanding. This progress promotes electrification of transport modes such as two/three-wheelers, light- duty vehicles (LDVs) (cars and vans), taxis and shared vehicles, buses and heavy-duty vehicles with short range requirements such as urban deliveries. Manufacturers are continuing to expand the number of EV models available to customers. Effective policies still needed to address upfront investment costs, promote EV charging infrastructure and ensure a smooth integration of charging demand in power systems. With foundations being laid for widespread adoption of EVs in several large economies, there are strong prospects that the 2020s will be the decade in which electric mobility significantly expands. The Global EV Outlook 2021 – the flagship annual publication of the Electric Vehicles Initiative – analyses the worldwide status of electric mobility. It considers the factors that have influenced recent developments, technological prospects and the outlook for EV deployment in the period to 2030. The analysis is presented in three chapters: Chapter 1 discusses trends in electric mobility with historical data on EV registrations and stock, and availability of charging infrastructure to the end of 2020. It explores the main factors driving electrification of road transport, including roll-out plans from the private sector and other developments to April 2021. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the current policy framework relevant to both light-duty and heavy-duty EVs to April 2021. It highlights measures undertaken by governments to shield the EV market from the impact of the Covid-19 panademic. Chapter 3 presents the outlook for EVs and chargers to 2030. It assesses their impacts on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, battery production volumes and revenue from taxes. https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/programmes-and-partnerships/the-iea-mobility-model https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/programmes-and-partnerships/the-iea-mobility-model Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 10 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Electric Vehicles Initiative Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 11 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Electric Vehicles Initiative aims to accelerate EV deployment The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) is a multi-governmental policy forum established in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). Recognising the opportunities offered by EVs, the EVI is dedicated to accelerating the adoption of EVs worldwide.To do so, it strives to better understand the policy challenges related to electric mobility, help governments address them and to serve as a platform for knowledge sharing. The EVI facilitates exchanges between government policy makers that are committed to supporting EV development and a variety of partners, bringing them together twice a year. Its multilateral nature, openness to various stakeholders and engagement at different levels of governance (from country to city-level) offer fruitful opportunities to exchange information and to learn from experiences developed by a range of actors in the transition to electric mobility. The International Energy Agency (IEA) serves as the co-ordinator to support the EVI member governments in this activity. Governments that have been active in the EVI in the 2020-21 period include Canada, Chile, People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom. Canada and China co-lead the initiative. Greece and Ghana are observers. The EVI also helps to raise the ambition levels for electric mobitlity worldwide through the linked CEM campaigns of EV30@30 and Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero Campaign, each endorsed by different members. EVI co-lead EVI co-lead Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 12 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Electric Vehicles Initiative campaigns Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 13 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction EV30@30 and the Drive to Zero campaigns support EV deployment EV30@30 Campaign The EV30@30 Campaign was launched at the CEM meeting in 2017 to spur the deployment of EVs. It sets a collective aspirational goal for EVs (excluding two/three-wheelers) to reach 30% sales share by 2030 across all signatory countries. This is the benchmark against which progress is to be measured for the EVI members. Fourteen countries endorsed the campaign: Canada; Chile; China; Finland; France; Germany; India; Japan; Mexico; Netherlands; Norway; Portugal; Sweden and United Kingdom. In addition, 30 companies and organisations support the campaign, including: C40; FIA Foundation; Global Fuel Economy Initiative; Hewlett Foundation; Natural Resources Defence Council; REN21; SLoCaT; The Climate Group; UN Environment Programme; UN Habitat; World Resources Institute; ZEV Alliance; ChargePoint; Energias de Portugal; Enel X; E.ON; Fortum; Iberdrola; Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance; Schneider Electric; TEPCO; Vattenfall and ChargeUp Europe. Coordinated by the IEA, the campaign includes five implementing actions to help achieve the goal in accordance with the priorities and programmes of each EVI member country. These include: • Support and track the deployment of EV chargers. • Galvanise public and private sector commitments to incorporate EVs in company and supplier fleets. • Scale up policy research and information exchanges. • Support governments through training and capacity building. • Establish the Global EV Pilot City Programme to achieve 100 EV- Friendly Cities over five years. Drive to Zero Campaign The Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero Campaign was launched at the 2020 CEM meeting and operates as part of the EVI. The campaign, administered by CALSTART, a clean transport non- profit organisation, aims to bring governments and leading industry stakeholders together to collaboratively develop policies, programmes and actions that can support the rapid manufacture and deployment of zero-emission commercial vehicles. Drive to Zero counts more than 100 pledge partners, including nine national governments (as of April 2020) and leading state, provincial and regional governments and agencies from across the world. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/8cbeac6e-50e5-4a50-909c-24108adaf603/CampaignDocumentupdate_2020.pdf https://globaldrivetozero.org/ https://calstart.org/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 14 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Introduction Implementing actions of the EV30@30 campaign GEF-7 Global Programme on electromobility The GEF-7 Global Electric Mobility Programme, funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), will be launched in the second-half of 2021 to help low and middle-income countries shift to electromobility. The programme plans to implement one global project and 27 country projects over a five-year period. The IEA together with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) will lead the global project, which aims to expand and complement the work of the EVI. Under the global project, the IEA and UNEP along with working groups (focusing on LDVs, two/three-wheelers, heavy-duty vehicles and system integration and batteries) will develop knowledge products to help inform the country projects, with knowledge transfers supported by regional platforms (Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America/Caribbean). In addition, the data tracking framework used for the annual Global EV Outlook reports will be extended to the countries participating in the programme. In part, programme activities will be implemented in collaboration with the European Commission SOLUTIONSPlus Project – an initiative funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 which is focused on EV deployment in urban areas. EVI Global EV Pilot City Programme The EVI Global EV Pilot City Programme was launched in May 2018 at the 9th CEM as an initiative of the EV30@30 campaign. It aims to build a network of at least 100 cities over an initial period of five years to work together on the promotion of electric mobility. Its central pillars are to facilitate information exchanges between cities and to encourage best practices, for example through webinars and workshops. Another important element is to develop analytical outputs and reports to help cities and other stakeholders learn from previous experiences of member cities. In March 2021, the EVI Pilot City Programme and the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technology Collaboration Programme (HEV TCP) jointly released the third EV Cities Casebook and Policy Guide. It aims to inspire a move towards mass electric mobility by showcasing cities building better and cleaner mobility with EVs. The casebook looks at global case studies of EV innovation, issues policy guidance, and provides analysis of common challenges and lessons learned in order to foster global uptake of electric vehicles in urban areas. The IEA and the Shanghai International Automobile City serve as the joint secretariat of the EVI Global EV Pilot City Programme. https://www.thegef.org/ https://www.thegef.org/ https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/programmes-and-partnerships/evi-global-ev-pilot-city-programme http://www.ieahev.org/ https://www.iea.org/reports/ev-city-casebook-and-policy-guide-2021-edition https://www.iea.org/reports/ev-city-casebook-and-policy-guide-2021-edition Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 15 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in electric vehicle markets Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 16 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in electric light-duty vehicles Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 17 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . More than 10 million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2020 with battery electric models driving the expansion Global electric car stock, 2010-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Electric vehicles include battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This report focuses on BEVs and PHEVs, i.e. EVs that are fuelled with electricity from the grid. All figures and discussion exclude FCEVs unless otherwise stated. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand. Europe includes the EU27, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and United Kingdom. Regional EV stock data can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2021); CAAM (2021); EAFO (2021); EV Volumes (2021) and Marklines (2021). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 M illi on Other PHEV Other BEV United States PHEV United States BEV Europe PHEV Europe BEV China PHEV China BEV https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer https://www.acea.be/ http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21.html https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ https://www.marklines.com/portal_top_en.html Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 18 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Electric car registrations increased in major markets in 2020 despite the Covid pandemic Electric car registrations and sales share in selected countries and regions, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle. The selected countries and regions are the largest EV markets and are ordered by size of the total car market in the upper half of the figure and by sales share of electric cars in the lower half. Regional EV registration data can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2021); CAAM (2020); EAFO (2021); EV Volumes (2021) and Marklines (2021). 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 E le ct ric c ar s al es s ha re 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Th ou sa nd 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 Japan Canada FranceKorea UK Germany Norway 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250 1 500 E le ct ric c ar s al es s ha re Sales share of new electric cars Th ou sa nd 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 20 15 20 20 China United States Europe Others Light shade: PHEVs Dark shade: BEVs 20 15 20 20 Netherlands Sweden https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer https://www.acea.be/ http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21.html https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ https://www.marklines.com/portal_top_en.html Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 19 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Electric cars had a record year in 2020, with Europe overtaking China as the biggest market Global After a decade of rapid growth, in 2020 the global electric car stock hit the 10 million mark, a 43% increase over 2019, and representing a 1% stock share. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for two- thirds of new electric car registrations and two-thirds of the stock in 2020. China, with 4.5 million electric cars, has the largest fleet, though in 2020 Europe had the largest annual increase to reach 3.2 million. Overall the global market for all types of cars was significantly affected by the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first part of 2020 saw new car registrations drop about one-third from the preceding year. This was partially offset by stronger activity in the second-half, resulting in a 16% drop overall year-on-year. Notably, with conventional and overall new car registrations falling, global electric car sales share rose 70% to a record 4.6% in 2020. About 3 million new electric cars were registered in 2020. For the first time, Europe led with 1.4 million new registrations. China followed with 1.2 million registrations and the United States registered 295 000 new electric cars. Numerous factors contributed to increased electric car registrations in 2020. Notably, electric cars are gradually becoming more competitive in some countries on a total cost of ownership basis. Several governments provided or extended fiscal incentives that buffered electric car purchases from the downturn in car markets. Europe Overall Europe’s car market contracted 22% in 2020. Yet, new electric car registrations more than doubled to 1.4 million representing a sales share of 10%. In the large markets, Germany registered 395 000 new electric cars and France registered 185 000. The United Kingdom more than doubled registrations to reach 176 000. Electric cars in Norway reached a record high sales share of 75%, up about one-third from 2019. Sales shares of electric cars exceeded 50% in Iceland, 30% in Sweden and reached 25% in the Netherlands. This surge in electric car registrations in Europe despite the economic slump reflect two policy measures. First, 2020 was the target year for the European Union’s CO2 emissions standards that limit the average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per kilometre driven for new cars. Second, many European governments increased subsidy schemes for EVs as part of stimulus packages to counter the effects of the pandemic. In European countries, BEV registrations accounted for 54% of electric car registrations in 2020, continuing to exceed those of plug- https://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-the-covid-19-crisis-hammers-the-auto-industry-electric-cars-remain-a-bright-spot https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020 https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 20 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). However, the BEV registration level doubled from the previous year while the PHEV level thripled. The share of BEVs was particularly high in the Netherlands (82% of all electric car registrations), Norway (73%), United Kingdom (62%) and France (60%). China The overall car market in China was impacted by the panademic less than other regions. Total new car registrations were down about 9%. Registration of new electric cars was lower than the overall car market in the first-half of 2020. This trend reversed in the second-half as China constrained the panademic. The result was a sales share of 5.7%, up from 4.8% in 2019. BEVs were about 80% of new electric cars registered. Key policy actions muted the incentives for the electric car market in China. Purchase subsidies were initially due to expire at the end of 2020, but following signals that they would be phased out more gradually prior to the pandemic, by April 2020 and in the midst of the pandemic, they were instead cut by 10% and exended through 2022. Reflecting economic concerns related to the pandemic, several cities relaxed car licence policies, allowing for more internal combustion engines vehicles to be registered to support local car industries. United States The US car market declined 23% in 2020, though electric car registrations fell less than the overall market. In 2020, 295 000 new electric cars were registered, of which about 78% were BEVs, down from 327 000 in 2019. Their sales share nudged up to 2%. Federal incentives decreased in 2020 due to the federal tax credits for Tesla and General Motors, which account for the majority of electric car registrations, reaching their limit. Other countries Electric car markets in other countries were resilent in 2020. For example, in Canada the new car market shrunk 21% while new electric car registrations were broadly unchanged from the previous year at 51 000. New Zealand is a notable exception. In spite of its strong pandemic response, it saw a decline of 22% in new electric car registrations in 2020, in line with a car market decline of 21%. The decline seems to be largely related to exceptionally low EV registrations in April 2020 when New Zealand was in lockdown. Another exception is Japan, where the overall new car market contracted 11% from the 2019 level while electric car registrations declined 25% in 2020. The electric car market in Japan has fallen in absolute and relative terms every year since 2017, when it peaked at 54 000 registrations and a 1% sales share. In 2020, there were 29 000 registrations and a 0.6% sales share. https://insideevs.com/news/407295/today-federal-tax-credit-gm-gone/#:%7E:text=GM%20joins%20Tesla%20in%20the,U.S.%20federal%20tax%20credit%20anymore.&text=Three%20months%20earlier%2C%20also%20Tesla%20lost%20its%20eligibility. https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 21 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Consumer spending on EVs continues to rise, while government support stabilises Consumer spending Consumers spent USD 120 billion on electric car purchases in 2020, a 50% increase from 2019, which breaks down to a 41% increase in sales and a 6% rise in average prices. The rise in average prices reflects that Europe, where prices are higher on average than in Asia, accounted for a bigger proportion of new electric car registrations. In 2020, the global average BEV price was around USD 40 000 and around USD 50 000 for a PHEV. Government spending Governments across the world spent USD 14 billion on direct purchase incentives and tax deductions for electric cars in 2020, a 25% rise year-on-year. Despite this, the share of government incentives in total spending on EVs has been on a downward slide from roughly 20% in 2015 to 10% in 2020. All the increase in government spending was in Europe, where many countries responded to the pandemic-induced economic downturn with incentive schemes that boosted electric car sales. In China, government spending decreased as the eligibility requirements for incentive programmes tightened. An important novelty in subsidy schemes was the introduction of price caps in Europe and China, i.e. no subsidy given for vehicles with prices above a certain threshold. This might be responsible for average electric car price falling in Europe and China: BEV cars sold in China were 3% cheaper in 2020 than in 2019, while PHEV cars in Europe were 8% cheaper. Consumer and government spending on electric cars, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Government incentives are the sum of direct government spending through purchase incentives and foregone revenue due to taxes waived specifically for electric cars. Only national government purchase support policies for electric cars are taken into account. Consumer spending is the total expenditure based on model price, minus government spending. Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes (2021) and Climate Policy Initiative (2021). 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 30 60 90 120 150 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 B ill io n U S D Consumer spending Government spending Share of government spending as a percentage of total https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-electric-car-sales-defied-covid-19-in-2020 http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/ https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 22 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . More electric car models are available; ranges start to plateau Electric car models available by region, 2020 Electric car models available globally and average range, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle; crossover = a type of sport utility vehicle built on a passenger car platform rather than on a pickup truck platform; SUV = sport utility vehicle. Vehicle models do not include the various trim-levels. Range is normalised to Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) for all regions. Range for PHEVs refers to the electric drive range. Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes (2021) and Marklines (2021). http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ https://www.marklines.com/portal_top_en.html Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 23 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Automakers entice customers with a wide menu including electric SUV models Worldwide about 370 electric car models were available in 2020, a 40% increase from 2019. China has the widest offering, reflecting its less consolidated automotive sector and that it is the world’s largest EV market. But in 2020 the biggest increase in number of models was in Europe where it more than doubled. BEV models are offered in most vehicle segments in all regions; PHEVs are skewed towards larger vehicle segments. Sport utility vehicle (SUV) models account for half of the available electric car models in all markets. China has nearly twice as many electric car models available as the European Union, which has more than twice as many electric models as the United States. This difference can partially be explained by the comparatively lower maturity of the US EV market, reflecting its weaker regulations and incentives at the national level. The average driving range of new BEVs has been steadily increasing. In 2020, the weighted average range for a new battery electric car was about 350 kilometres (km), up from 200 km in 2015.The weighted average range of electric cars in the United States tends to be higher than in China because of a bigger share of small urban electric cars in China.The average electric range of PHEVs has remained relatively constant about 50 km over the past few years. The widest variety of models and the biggest expansion in 2020 was in the SUV segment. More than 55% of announced models worldwide are SUVs and pick-ups. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) may be moving to electrify this segment for the following reasons: • SUVs are the fastest growing market segment in Europe and China, and by far the largest market share in the United States. • SUVs command higher prices and generally offer higher profit margins than smaller vehicles. This means OEMs find it easier to bear the extra costs of electrification for SUVs since the powertrain accounts for a smaller share of the total cost compared with a small car. • Electrifying the heaviest and most fuel consuming vehicles goes further toward meeting emissions targets than electrifying a small car. • In Europe, the ZLEV credit scheme in the most recent CO2 emissions standards offers strong incentives for selling electric SUVs from 2025, as it relaxes emissions standards in proportion to their potential to reduce specific CO2 emissions. In fact, in Europe, the share of electric SUV models is higher than for the overall market. https://www.iea.org/reports/fuel-economy-in-major-car-markets https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 24 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . China leads in electric LCV sales with Europe not far behind and Korea entering the market Global electric light-commercial vehicle (LCV) stock numbers about 435 000 units. About a third of these are in Europe where new electric LCV registrations in 2020 were only 5% below those in China, which is the world leader. Electric LCV registrations in China in 2020 were 3 400 units below the previous year and slightly less than half of the peak in 2018. The bulk of the electric LCV registrations are BEVs, with PHEVs accounting for less than 10%. In Europe, electric LCV registrations jumped almost 40% in 2020 from the prior year to exceed 37 000 units. Though that was less impressive than the more than doubling of electric car registrations. New EV registrations in Europe are being driven by economic stimulus packages and by CO2 standards that limit emissions per kilometre driven. However, current standards for LCVs are not stringent enough to warrant large-scale electrification, as they do for passenger cars. Registration of electric LCVs in 2020 in the rest of the world were about 19 000 units. Most of these were in Korea, reflecting the launch of two new BEV LCV models, but Canada also added to the stock of electric LCVs. Other markets around the world have yet to see much uptake of electric LCVs. The explosion of home deliveries during the Covid-19 pandemic further boosted the electric LCV expansion in some countries. Increased deliveries raised concerns about air pollution, particularly in urban areas. In response, a number of companies announced plans to electrify delivery fleets. Electric LCVs registrations by region, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle. Regional electric LCV registrations and stock data can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2021); EAFO (2021) and EV Volumes (2021). 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 China Europe Others Th ou sa nd Light shade: PHEV Dark shade: BEV https://www.euractiv.com/section/electric-cars/opinion/deliveries-are-up-e-van-sales-are-not-thats-a-disaster-for-pollution/ https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer https://www.acea.be/ https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 25 Trends and developments in EV markets IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . 18 of the 20 largest OEMs have committed to increase the offer and sales of EVs Original equipment manufacturer announcements related to electric light-duty vehicles IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: This table is based on the authors’ understanding of OEM announcements and may not be complete. It includes only announcements related to electric light-duty vehicles (PHEVs and BEVs) and it excludes announcements related to hybrid vehicles and those that do not provide a clear indication of the EV share. Sources: BMW (2021); BJEV-BAIC (2021); BYD (2021); Chery (2021); Changan Automobile (2021); Daimler (2021); Dongfeng (2021); FAW (2021); Ford (2021); GAC; General Motors; Honda (2021); Hyundai (2020); Mazda (2021); Renault-Nissan (2019); Maruti Suzuki (2019); SAIC (2021); Stellantis (2021); Toyota (2021); Volkswagen (2021). https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0327929EN/a-new-era-a-new-class:-bmw-group-steps-up-technology-offensive-with-comprehensive-realignment-%E2%80%93-uncompromisingly-electric-digital-and-circular http://www.xinhuanet.com/auto/2021-02/07/c_1127074560.htm https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210204A01BYW00 https://www.sohu.com/a/397828611_114988 https://www.sohu.com/a/373020333_120008039 https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=48594453&ls=L2VuL2luc3RhbmNlL2tvLnhodG1sP29pZD05MjY1NjY0JnJlbElkPTYwODI5JmZyb21PaWQ9OTI2NTY2NCZib3JkZXJzPXRydWUmcmVzdWx0SW5mb1R5cGVJZD00MDYyNiZ2aWV3VHlwZT1saXN0JnNvcnREZWZpbml0aW9uPVBVQkxJU0hFRF9BVC0yJnRodW1iU2NhbGVJbmRleD0wJnJvd0NvdW50c0luZGV4PTUmZnJvbUluZm9UeXBlSWQ9NDA2Mjg!&rs=1 https://xw.qq.com/amphtml/20201231A02NHQ00 https://auto.gasgoo.com/news/202102/3I70241002C110.shtml https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/feu/en/news/2021/02/17/ford-europe-goes-all-in-on-evs-on-road-to-sustainable-profitabil.html https://auto.sina.com.cn/news/zz/2021-02-02/detail-ikftpnny3330315.shtml https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2021/jan/0128-carbon.html https://global.honda/newsroom/news/2021/c210423eng.html https://insideevs.com/news/390713/hyundai-electrification-plan-2025/ https://newsroom.mazda.com/en/ http://www.alliance-/ https://inc42.com/buzz/maruti-suzuki-pushes-wagonr-electric-launch-to-2021-hereswhy/ https://news.online.sh.cn/news/gb/content/2021-02/03/content_9713497.htm https://fiat.mc.eu1.kontiki.com/global2/player?moid=736fc9bf-3f8e-44d0-b650-5bb8d54301ff https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/toyota/35083987.html?padid=ag478_from_pickup https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/events/2021/Volkswagen_Power_Day.html Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 26 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Manufacturers’ electrification targets align with the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario OEMs are expected to embrace electric mobility more widely in the 2020s. Notably 18 of the 20 largest OEMs (in terms of vehicles sold in 2020), which combined accounted for almost 90% of all worldwide new car registrations in 2020, have announced intentions to increase the number of available models and boost production of electric light- duty vehicles (LDVs). A number of manufacturers have raised the bar to go beyond previous announcements related to EVs with an outlook beyond 2025. More than ten of the largest OEMs worldwide have declared electrification targets for 2030 and beyond.. Significantly, some OEMs plan to reconfigure their product lines to produce only electric vehicles. In the first-trimester of 2021 these announcements included: Volvo will only sell electric cars from 2030; Ford will only electric car sales in Europe from 2030; General Motors plans to offer only electric LDVs by 2035; Volkswagen aims for 70% electric car sales in Europe, and 50% in China and the United States by 2030; and Stellantis aims for 70% electric cars sales in Europe and 35% in the United States. Overall, the announcements by the OEMs translate to estimated cumulative sales of electric LDVs of 55-73 million by 2025. In the short term (2021-2022), the estimated cumulative sales align closely with the electric LDV projections in the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario. By 2025, the estimated cumulative sales based on the OEMs announcements are aligned with the trajectories of IEA Sustainable Development Scenario. OEMs announcements compared to electric LDVs stock projections in two IEA scenarios, 2021-2025 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Cumulative sales are based on current OEM announcements and interpolated between current sales and the OEM targets. This assessment has been developed estimating first a number of EVs deployed by OEMs in a target year and then extrapolating these values for the following years using a range of assumptions. The number of EVs sold by each OEM in the target year is calculated taking into account three possible inputs: i) an absolute target value of EV sales; ii) a target value expressed in terms of models deployed in a given year; or iii) a targeted percentage of the OEM sales in a given year. Sources: IEA analysis developed with the Mobility Model and based on the OEM announcements included in the table above. 0 50 100 150 200 250 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 M illi on Range of OEMs declarations (estimate) Stated Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020 https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/277409/volvo-cars-to-be-fully-electric-by-2030 https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/feu/en/news/2021/02/17/ford-europe-goes-all-in-on-evs-on-road-to-sustainable-profitabil.html https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2021/jan/0128-carbon.html https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2021/jan/0128-carbon.html https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volkswagen-is-accelerating-transformation-into-software-driven-mobility-provider-6878 https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volkswagen-is-accelerating-transformation-into-software-driven-mobility-provider-6878 https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volkswagen-is-accelerating-transformation-into-software-driven-mobility-provider-6878 https://fiat.mc.eu1.kontiki.com/global2/player?moid=736fc9bf-3f8e-44d0-b650-5bb8d54301ff https://fiat.mc.eu1.kontiki.com/global2/player?moid=736fc9bf-3f8e-44d0-b650-5bb8d54301ff https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019 https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/programmes-and-partnerships/the-iea-mobility-model Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 27 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Trends and developments in electric heavy-duty vehicles Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 28 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Electric bus and truck registrations expanded in major markets in 2020 Electric bus and electric heavy-duty truck (HDT) registrations increased in 2020 in China, Europe and North America. The global electric bus stock was 600 000 in 2020 and the electric HDT stock was 31 000. Bus registrations China continues to dominate the electric bus market, with registration of 78 000 new vehicles in 2020, up 9% on the year to reach a sales share of 27%. Local policies to curb air pollution are the driving force. Electric bus registrations in Europe were 2 100, an increase of around 7%, well below the doubling in registrations seen in 2019. Electric buses now make up 4% of all new bus registrations in Europe. It is too early to see the effect of the non-binding European Clean Bus Deployment Initiative and demand may be still largely driven by muncipal level policies. In North America, there were 580 new electric bus registrations in 2020, down almost 15% from the prior year. In the United States, electric bus deployment primarly reflects polices in California, which is the location of most of the current e-bus stock. In South America, Chile leads the way registering 400 electric buses in 2020 for a total stock of more than 800. India increased electric bus registrations 34% to 600 in 2020. Heavy-duty truck registrations Global electric HDT registrations were 7 400 in 2020, up 10% on the previous year. The global stock of electric HDTs numbers 31 000. China continues to dominate the category, with 6 700 new registrations in 2020, up 10% though much lower than the fourfold increase in 2019. Electric HDT registrations in Europe rose 23% to about 450 vehicles and in the United States increased to 240 vehicles. Electric trucks are still below 1% of sales in both. Electric bus and truck registrations by region, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Electric bus and truck registrations and stock data can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2021); EAFO (2021) and EV Volumes (2021). 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Th ou sa nd United States Europe China 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Th ou sa nd Buses Trucks https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/urban/cleanbus_en https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/urban/cleanbus_en https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer https://www.acea.be/ https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 29 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Electric heavy-duty vehicle models are broadening The availability of electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) models is expanding in leading global markets.1 Buses were the earliest and most successful case of electrification in the HDV market, but the growing demand for electric trucks is pushing manufacturers to broaden product lines. Nevertheless, model availability is not the only indicator of a healthy market – fewer total models may reflect the reliability and broad applicability of existing designs, whereas more diversity of models may reflect the need to tailor products for specific needs and operations. The growth in electric model availability from 2020 to 2023 across segments – bus, medium freight truck (MFT), heavy freight truck (HFT) and others – demonstrates manufacturers’ commitments to electrification. Truck makers such as Daimler, MAN, Renault, Scania and Volvo have indicated they see an all-electric future. The broadening range of available zero-emission HDVs, particularly in the HFT segment, demonstrates the commitment to provide fleets the flexibility to meet operational needs. The HDV segment includes a wide variety of vehicle types, e.g. from long-haul freight to garbage collection trucks. China has the most variety in available electric bus models. The availablity of MFT 1 Electric HDVs data are derived from the Global Drive to Zero’s Zero Emission Technology Inventory (ZETI) which is a regularly updated tool that offers a detailed glimpse of announced OEM models is broadest in the United States. For HFTs – the segment where the EV model offer is expected to the grow the most – Europe offers the widest selection of models. Number of announced electric HDV models available by segment, 2020-2023 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Other includes garbage, bucket, concrete mixer, mobile commercial and street sweeper trucks. Rest of the world includes India and South America. Source: IEA analysis based on Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool. production model timelines. ZETI data are meant to support fleet operators and policy makers and should not be construed as representative of the entire vehicle market. 0 50 100 150 200 250 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 Bus Medium freight truck Heavy freight truck Other C um ul at iv e nu m be r o f m od el s av ai la bl e China Europe United States Rest of the world https://www.daimler.com/innovation/drive-systems/electric/ https://press.mantruckandbus.com/corporate/man-presents-zero-emission-roadmap/ https://thedriven.io/2021/03/24/renault-trucks-promises-electric-range-for-each-market-segment-by-2023/ https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/newsroom/news/2021/Scanias-commitment-to-battery-electric-vehicles.html https://www.volvogroup.com/en-en/news/2020/nov/news-3820395.html https://globaldrivetozero.org/tools/zero-emission-technology-inventory/ https://globaldrivetozero.org/tools/zero-emission-technology-inventory/ https://globaldrivetozero.org/tools/zero-emission-technology-inventory/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 30 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Types of zero-emission HDVs expand, and driving range lengthens Current and announced zero-emission HDV models by segment, release year and powertrain in major markets, 2020-2023 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Data are derived from CALSTART’s Zero-Emission Technology Inventory. Although the inventory is continuously updated, this snapshot may be not fully comprehensive due to new model announcements and small manufacturers not yet captured in the inventory. The term zero-emission vehicle includes BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs. Other includes garbage, bucket, concrete mixer, mobile commercial and street sweeper trucks. Years after 2021 include announced models. Source: IEA analysis based on the Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool. https://globaldrivetozero.org/tools/zero-emission-technology-inventory/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 31 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Private sector commitment and other electrification trends Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 32 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Private sector demand for zero-emission commercial vehicles amplifies market signals for OEMs to develop EVs Private sector declarations related to electric commercial vehicles Company Operating area Announced Target / actions Amazon Global 2020 Orders 100 000 BEV light-commercial vehicles from start-up company Rivian. Amazon aims to be net-zero emissions by 2040. Anheuser-Busch United States 2019 Orders up to 800 hydrogen fuel cell Nikola heavy-duty trucks. DHL Group Global 2019 Delivery of mail and parcels by EVs in the medium term and net-zero emissions logistics by 2050. FedEx Global 2018 Transition to an all zero-emission vehicle fleet and carbon neutral operations by 2040. H2 Mobility Association Switzerland 2019 19 of Switzerland's largest retailers invest in Hyundai hydrogen trucking services that will deploy up to 1 600 heavy-duty zero-emission trucks. Ingka Group (IKEA) Global 2018 Zero-emission deliveries in leading cities by 2020 and in all cities by 2025. Japan Post Japan 2019 Electrify 1 200 mail and parcel delivery vans by 2021 and net-zero emissions logistics by 2050. JD China 2017 Replace entire vehicle fleet (> 10 000) with New Energy Vehicles by 2022. SF Express China 2018 Launch nearly 10 000 BEV logistics vehicles. Suning China 2018 Independent retailer’s Qingcheng Plan will deploy 5 000 new energy logistics vehicles. UPS North America 2019 Order 10 000 BEV light-commercial vehicles with potential for a second order. Various companies Multinational 2018 Walmart, Pepsi, Anheuser-Busch, FedEx, Sysco and other large multinational corporations pre-order 2 000 Tesla Semi models within six months of truck's debut. Walmart United States 2020 Electrify the whole vehicle fleet by 2040. Notes: Based on authors understanding of private sector announcements and may not be comprehensive. Sources: Amazon (2020); Anheuser-Busch (2019); DHL Group (2019); FedEx (2021); H2 Mobility Association (2019); Ingka Group (2018); Japan Post (2019); JD (2017); SF Express (2018); Suning (2018); UPS (2019); Various companies (2017) (2020) and Walmart (2020). https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/transportation/introducing-amazons-first-custom-electric-delivery-vehicle https://www.anheuser-busch.com/newsroom/20071/05/anheuser-busch-continues-leadership-in-clean-energy---places-ord.html https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/about-us/delivered-magazine/articles/2017/issue-2-2017/zero-emissions-by-2050.html https://newsroom.fedex.com/newsroom/fedex-and-chanje-to-develop-groundbreaking-charging-infrastructure/ https://newsroom.fedex.com/newsroom/Sustainability2021 https://h2mobilitaet.ch/en/ https://www.ikea.com/us/en/this-is-ikea/newsroom/ikea-group-commits-to-zero-emissions-targets-for-home-delivery-in-five-major-cities-by-2020-pub33626f11 https://www.post.japanpost.jp/notification/pressrelease/2019/00_honsha/0326_01_01.pdf https://asiatimes.com/2018/06/jd-com-debuts-solar-delivery-trucks-in-green-logistics-push/ https://asiatimes.com/2018/06/jd-com-debuts-solar-delivery-trucks-in-green-logistics-push/ https://www.sf-express.com/cn/sc/download/20200708-IR-1-2019.PDF https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/suningcom-reaches-2-of-this-year-electric-delivery-van-goal- https://arrival.com/news/ups-invests-in-arrival-and-orders-10000-generation-2-electric-vehicles https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-that-ordered-tesla-semi-2017-12 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/tesla-delays-semi-production-and-deliveries-until-2021.html https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2020/09/21/walmart-sets-goal-to-become-a-regenerative-company Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 33 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Climate Group’s EV100 Initiative update on private sector commitments Despite a turbulent year, major companies around the world are accelerating the transition to electric mobility by shifting fleets to electric vehicles and installing charging stations. The Climate Group’s EV100 Initiative brings together over 100 companies in 80 markets committed to making electric transport the new normal by 2030. This equates to 4.8 million vehicles switched to EVs and chargers installed in 6 500 locations by 2030. Collectively, by 2020 EV100 members had already deployed 169 000 zero-emission vehicles, double the previous year. Even though companies identify commercial vans and heavy-duty vehicles as the most difficult EVs to find, the number of commercial electric vehicles rose 23% in 2020, including a threefold increase in electric trucks. EV100 members are also expanding the availability of charging infrastructure for staff and customers, with 16 900 charging points installed at 2 100 locations worldwide. Over half of EV100 members are using renewables to power all their charging operations. Significant barriers to EV adoption remain. EV100 members reported the lack of charging infrastructure as the top barrier (especially in the United States and United Kingdom). Lack of availability of appropriate vehicle types was also highlighted by the companies as a persistant obstacle. The purchase price of EVs remains an important hurdle despite many companies acknowledge the significant cost savings over the lifetime of a vehicle due to lower fuel and maintenance costs. To help overcome these barriers, 71% of EV100 members support more favourable EV procurement tax benefits and 70% favour more supportive policies at state, regional and city government levels. Sixty percent of the member companies support government targets to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. Top five barriers to EV adoption reported by EV100 members Note: Percentages reflect the ranking of the barriers as significant or very significant by EV 100 member respondents. Source: The Climate Group (2021). 67% Lack of charging Operational change impacts (e.g. charging time) Lack of appropriate EV type Uncertain/ underdeveloped policy landscape for EVs Capital cost of EVs 54% 64% 28% 58% https://www.theclimategroup.org/ev100 https://www.theclimategroup.org/ev100-annual-report-2021 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 34 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Battery demand lagged EV sales in 2020; Europe sees highest rise in demand Automotive lithium-ion (Li-Ion) battery production was 160 gigawatt- hours (GWh) in 2020, up 33% from 2019. The increase reflects a 41% increase in electric car registrations and a constant average battery capacity of 55 kilowatt-hours (kWh) for BEVs and 14 kWh for PHEVs. Battery demand for other transport modes increased 10%. Battery production continues to be dominated by China, which accounts for over 70% of global battery cell production capacity. China accounted for the largest share of battery demand at almost 80 GWh in 2020, while Europe had the largest percentage increase at 110% to reach 52 GWh. Demand in the United States was stable at 19 GWh. Nickel-manganese-cobalt continues to be the dominant chemistry for Li-ion batteries, with around 71% sales share and nickel-cobalt- aluminium accounting for most of the rest. Lithium-iron-phosphate battery chemistry has regained sales share but is still under 4% for the electric car market. According to the BNEF’s yearly survey of battery prices, the weighted average cost of automotive batteries declined 13% in 2020 from 2019, reaching USD 137/kWh at a pack level. Lower prices are offered for high volume purchases, confirmed by teardown analysis of a VW ID3 showing an estimated cost of USD 100/kWh for its battery cells. In Europe, demand for batteries in 2020 exceeded domestic production capacity. Today Europe’s main battery factories are located in Poland and Hungary. Production capacity is roughly 35 GWh per year, but announced capacity could yield up to 400 GWh by 2025. Momentum was evident in 2020 in Europe with many new battery plants announced or under construction with support from the European Investment Bank. In the United States, both Korean and domestic battery manufacturers have signalled large investments in a market currently dominated by a Tesla-Panasonic joint venture. Automotive battery demand by mode and region, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Other = light-commercial vehicles, heavy-duty trucks and two/three- wheelers; PLDVs = passenger light-duty vehicles. Source: IEA analysis developed with EV Volumes (2021) data. https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/#:%7E:text=This%20indicates%20that%20on%20average,prices%20will%20be%20%24101%2FkWh. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2021/03/ubs-study.html https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/cct/2020/Fact_check_Batteries_for_electric_cars.pdf https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/cct/2020/Fact_check_Batteries_for_electric_cars.pdf https://www.reuters.com/article/us-general-motors-electric/gm-looking-to-build-second-battery-plant-in-us-wsj-idUSKBN2AW179 http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 35 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Pandemic spreads popularity of electric micromobility Electric micromobility surged in the second-half of 2020, one of the consumer trends that accelerated during the Covid-19 pandemic, further boosted by the construction of bike lanes and other measures to promote mobility. Sales of private e-bikes in the United States more than doubled in 2020, outpacing sales of all bikes which were up an already healthy 65%. Many shared micromobility operators reduced or suspended services during the height of the second-quarter 2020 Covid-19 lockdowns. But as confinements were eased, services rebounded strongly, with 270 cities worldwide relaunching operations. As of February 2021, around 650 cities have shared micromobility services. In Europe, e-scooter services have increased rapidly, with more than 100 cities adding operations since July 2020. Preliminary data from operators indicate average trip distances on e- scooters have increased by around 25% relative to before the pandemic. Operators are increasingly offering more powerful e-bikes with plans to expand into electric mopeds, which could further displace longer trips currently completed by car or public transit. Several major operators are introducing swappable batteries to improve operational efficiency and reduce emissions. Although the use of swappable batteries increases the number of total batteries needed to support a fleet, it can significantly reduce operational emissions and enable longer lifetime of vehicles. Privately owned electric two/three-wheelers (which include motorised vehicles such as motorcycles and mopeds but exclude micromobility solutions) are concentrated in Asia, with China accounting for 99% of registrations. The global stock of electric two/three-wheelers is now around 290 million. Electric two/three-wheelers account for one-third of all two/three-wheeler sales. While current sales are dominated by Asia, the market is growing rapidly in Europe, rising by 30% in 2020, benefitting from wider model availability and continued incentives. Availability of dockless shared micromobility services, 2019-2021 IEA. All rights reserved. Source: NUMO New Mobility Atlas (2021). 0 50 100 150 200 250 2019- Q4 2020- Q1 2020- Q2 2021- Q1 2019- Q4 2020- Q1 2020- Q2 2021- Q1 2019- Q4 2020- Q1 2020- Q2 2021- Q1 Europe and Central Asia North America East Asia and Pacific N um be r o f c iti es Shared e-scooters Shared dockless bicycles https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/travel/ebikes-bike-sharing-us.html#:%7E:text=The%20market%20research%20firm%20NPD,which%20were%20up%2065%20percent https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/travel/ebikes-bike-sharing-us.html#:%7E:text=The%20market%20research%20firm%20NPD,which%20were%20up%2065%20percent https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/13/21257307/electric-scooter-bikeshare-covid-19-bird-lime-uber-subsidies https://www.numo.global/news/new-mobility-atlas-update-february-22-2021 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-future-of-micromobility-ridership-and-revenue-after-a-crisis https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/the-future-of-micromobility-ridership-and-revenue-after-a-crisis https://nacto.org/2020/08/27/136-million-trips-taken-on-shared-bikes-and-scooters-across-the-u-s-in-2019/ https://nacto.org/2020/08/27/136-million-trips-taken-on-shared-bikes-and-scooters-across-the-u-s-in-2019/ https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/27/22248805/lime-electric-moped-scooter-niu-washington-paris https://www.itf-oecd.org/good-go-assessing-environmental-performance-new-mobility https://www.numo.global/new-mobility-atlas Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 36 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Korea takes a lead in deploying fuel cell electric vehicles Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are zero-emission vehicles that convert hydrogen stored on-board using a fuel cell to power an electric motor. FCEV cars became commercially available in 2014, though registrations remain three orders of magnitude lower than EVs as hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) are not widely available and unlike EVs cannot be charged at home. Few commercial FCEV models are available and with high fuel cost and purchase prices result in a higher total cost of ownership than EVs. To address the chicken-and-egg problem for FCEVs a number of goverments have funded the construction of HRS and have deployed public buses and trucks, such as garbage trucks, to provide a certain level of station utilisation. Today, there are approximately 540 HRS globally that provide fuel for almost 35 000 FCEVs. Approximately three-quarters of the FCEVs are LDVs, 15% are buses and 10% are trucks. In 2020, Korea took the lead in FCEVs, surpassing the United States and China, to reach more than 10 000 vehicles. To support these FCEVs, the number of HRS in Korea increased by 50%, with 18 new stations in 2020. FCEVs in China are almost exclusively buses and trucks, unlike most other countries where cars are dominant. China accounts for 94% of global fuel cell buses and 99% of fuel cell trucks. In 2020, the global FCEV stock increased 40%, with Korea contributing half and doubling its total FCEV stock. Japan and China increased the number of HRS, each opening about 25 stations in 2020. Worldwide the number of HRS increased 15%. Fuel cell electric vehicle stock and hydrogen refuelling stations by region, 2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: FCEV = fuel cell electric vehicle (shown in the outer circle); HRS = hydrogen refuelling station (shown in inner circle); PLDVs = passenger light- duty vehicles; LCVs = light-commercial vehicles; RoW = rest of the world. Sources: All fuel cell vehicle data reported in this figure and section are based on the annual data submission of the Advanced Fuel Cell Technology Collaboration Program (AFC TCP) to the IEA secretariat. FCEV 9% 12% 16% 25% 17% 21% 29% 27% 24% 12% 3% 5% Korea United States China Japan Germany RoW HRS FCEVs (34 800 worldwide) and HRS (540 worldwide) FCEVs by mode 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 PLDVs LCVs Buses Trucks FC E V s to ck (t ho us an d) https://www.ieafuelcell.com/index.php?id=2 https://www.ieafuelcell.com/index.php?id=2 Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 37 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Deployment of electric vehicle-charging infrastructure Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 38 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Publicly accessible slow and fast chargers increased to 1.3 million in 2020 Stock of fast and slow publicly accessible chargers for electric light-duty vehicles, 2015-2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: EVSE = electric vehicle supply equipment. RoW = rest of the world. Slow chargers have a charging power below 22 kW, while fast chargers provide more than 22 kW. For additional details about charger classification by rated power refer to Global EV Outlook 2019. Regional slow and fast publicly accessible charger data can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer. Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by AFDC (2021) and EAFO (2021). 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China Europe United States RoW Fa st E VS E st oc k (th ou sa nd ) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sl ow E VS E st oc k (th ou sa nd ) https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019 https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer https://afdc.energy.gov/data/ https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 39 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Installation of publicly accessible chargers expanded sevenfold in the last five years; Covid-19 muted the pace in 2020 while China still leads While most charging of EVs is done at home and work, roll-out of publicly accessible charging will be critical as countries leading in EV deployment enter a stage where simpler and improved autonomy will be demanded by EV owners. Publicly accessible chargers reached 1.3 million units in 2020, of which 30% are fast chargers. Installation of publicly accessible chargers was up 45%, a slower pace than the 85% in 2019, likely because work was interrupted in key markets due to the pandemic. China leads the world in availability of both slow and fast publicly accessible chargers. Slow chargers The pace of slow charger (charging power below 22 kW) installations in China in 2020 increased by 65% to about 500 000 publicly accessible slow chargers. This represents more than half of the world’s stock of slow chargers. Europe is second with around 250 000 slow chargers, with installtions increasing one-third in 2020. The Netherlands leads in Europe with more than 63 000 slow chargers. Sweden, Finland and Iceland doubled their stock of slow chargers in 2020. Installation of slow chargers in the United States increased 28% in 2020 from the prior year to total 82 000. The number of slow chargers installed in Korea rose 45% in 2020 to 54 000, putting it in second place. Fast chargers The pace of fast charger (charging power more than 22 kW) installations in China in 2020 increased by 44% to almost 310 000 fast chargers, slower than the 93% pace of annual growth in 2019. The relatively high number of publically available fast chargers in China is to compensate for a paucity of private charging options and to facilitate achievement of goals for rapid EV deployment. In Europe, fast chargers are being rolled out at a higher rate than slow ones. There are now more than 38 000 public fast chargers, up 55% in 2020, including nearly 7 500 in Germany, 6 200 in the United Kingdom, 4 000 in France and 2 000 in the Netherlands. The United States counts 17 000 fast chargers, of which nearly 60% are Tesla superchargers. Korea has 9 800 fast chargers. Publicly accessible fast chargers facilitate longer journeys. As they are increasingly deployed, they will enable longer trips and encourage late adopters without access to private charging to purchase an electric vehicle. Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 40 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Most countries in Europe did not achieve 2020 AFID targets for publicly accessible chargers European countries for the most part failed to meet the recommended electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) per EV 2020 targets for publicly accessible chargers set by the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Directive (AFID). However, there are wide disparities between countries. AFID, the key policy regulating the deployment of public electric EVSE in the European Union, recommended that member states aim for 1 public charger per 10 EVs, a ratio of 0.1 in 2020. In the European Union, the average public EVSE per EV ratio was 0.09 at the end of 2020. But that is not the whole story. The Netherlands and Italy are above the target at 0.22 and 0.13 respectively, with almost all being slow chargers, though fast chargers are 3% of the installations in the Netherlands and 9% in Italy. Countries with the highest EV penetration tend to have the lowest EVSE per EV ratios, such as Norway (0.03), Iceland (0.03) and Denmark (0.05). In these sparsely populated countries with many detached houses and private parking spaces, most EV owners can largely use private home charging. To a lesser extent, it also refects that the Nordic countries have a higher proportion of fast chargers, with shares of 40% in Iceland, 31% in Norway and 17% in Denmark. Ratio of public chargers per EV stock by country, 2020 IEA. All rights reserved. Notes: Green colour represents the European Union countries fulfilling the AFID target. Vertical dotted line denotes the AFID target ratio. EVSE Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by EAFO (2021) and EV Volumes (2021). 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 New Zealand Iceland Norway India Denmark Portugal United States Sweden Canada Germany Thailand Poland United Kingdom Finland Belgium Europe Spain Switzerland Greece France Japan World Italy China South Africa Netherlands Indonesia Chile Korea EVSE per EV https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32014L0094 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32014L0094 https://webstore.iea.org/nordic-ev-outlook-2018#:%7E:text=The%20report%20assesses%20the%20current,frameworks%20in%20supporting%20these%20developments. https://www.eafo.eu/vehicles-and-fleet/overview http://www.ev-volumes.com/datacenter/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 41 IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Trends and developments in EV markets Planning needs to start now for megachargers to enable long-distance trucking The roll-out of public charging infrastructure has so far mostly focused on serving electric light-duty vehicles. The electrification of heavy freight trucks (HFTs) is a longer term endeavour, with less than 40 electric HFTs on the road in 2020. HFTs require batteries with high capacity to meet their needs for heavy-duty cycles and long-range operations, and consequently they require high power charging. So far charging options for HFTs have tended to be early stage demonstrations, proof-of-concept activities and efforts to faciliate standardisation. Megachargers of 1 megawatt (MW) or more would be capable of charging trucks operating over long distances reasonably quickly. Long-term planning for megacharger infastructure is needed now to avoid negative impacts on the electrical grid. Some impact to grids is inevitable given the high power requirements of megachargers. Significant investment may be needed for grid reinforcements, modernisation, storage and integration with power systems. Planning and co-ordination among electricity generators, distribution system operators and megacharging operations are needed. Some efforts are underway to develop standards for megachargers. Working jointly, the CHAdeMO association and the China Electricity Council have developed an ultra-high power charging standard (up to 900 kW), called ChaoJi. A version up to 1.8 MW, called Ultra ChaoJi, is under development. In parallel, the CharIN initiative established a task force called the Megawatt Charging System Taskforce which aims to develop a new high power standard above 1 MW by 2023 for charging heavy-duty trucks, based on the combined charging system (CCS) standard. Prototype testing started in September 2020. Tesla announced in late 2020 that it is working with third-parties to develop a standard for megachargers that can be provided to Semi truck owners. Tesla is one of five to have submitted a design to CharIN. Industry experts addressing international standardisation are evaluating avenues to harmonise megacharger standards for mutual compatibility, in order to facilitate the roll-out of electric HFTs. There are also regional efforts to develop megacharging infrastructure. Underpinned with stimulus funding, Iberdrola, a Spanish multinational electric utility, has expressed interest in installing megacharger infrastructure in heavy-duty freight truck corridors in Spain by 2025. ElaadNL (EV knowledge centre of Dutch grid operators), along with local and national government entities, in September 2021 launched an open-access test centre for companies and academia that offers test facilities for megachargers. In the United States, the West Coast Clean Transit Corridor Initiative aims to install charging sites capable of charging HDTs at 2 MW along key transit corridors from Mexico to the boder with Canada by 2030. https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/charging-infrastructure-standardisation-developments-bracklo.pdf https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/regulations-standards-clean-trucks-buses_0.pdf https://www.chademo.com/chademo-3-0-released/ https://www.charin.global/technology/mcs/ https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/regulations-standards-clean-trucks-buses_0.pdf https://www.charin.global/technology/mcs/ https://electrek.co/2020/10/22/tesla-mysterious-third-parties-megacharger-network-electric-semi-trucks/ https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/recovery-plan-europe_en https://www.elaad.nl/news/nederland-krijgt-internationaal-testcentrum-voor-het-laden-van-elektrische-voertuigen/#:%7E:text=Nederland%20krijgt%20internationaal%20testcentrum%20voor%20het%20laden%20van%20elektrische%20voertuigen,-3%20March%202021&text=Nederland%20krijgt%20een%20nieuw%20internationaal,op%20gebied%20van%20duurzaam%20vervoer https://www.elaad.nl/news/nederland-krijgt-internationaal-testcentrum-voor-het-laden-van-elektrische-voertuigen/#:%7E:text=Nederland%20krijgt%20internationaal%20testcentrum%20voor%20het%20laden%20van%20elektrische%20voertuigen,-3%20March%202021&text=Nederland%20krijgt%20een%20nieuw%20internationaal,op%20gebied%20van%20duurzaam%20vervoer https://westcoastcleantransit.com/ Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 42 Electric vehicle policies IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 43 Electric vehicle policies IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Are we entering the era of the electric vehicle? Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 44 Electric vehicle policies IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . Ten million electric cars were on the world’s roads in 2020. It was a pivotal year for the electrification of mass market transportation. Sales of electric cars were 4.6% of total car sales around the world. The availability of electric vehicle models expanded. New initiatives for critical battery technology were launched. And, this progress advanced in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and its related economic downturn and lockdowns. Over the last decade a variety of support policies for electric vehicles (EVs) were instituted in key markets which helped stimulate a major expansion of electric car models. But the challenge remains enormous. Reaching a trajectory consistent with the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario will require putting 230 million EVs on the world’s roads by 2030. For EVs to unleash their full potential to combat climate change, the 2020s will need to be the decade of mass adoption of electric light- duty vehicles. In addition, specific policy support and model expansion for the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle segments will be crucial to mitigate emissions and make progress toward climate goals. 2 In Norway, battery-electric cars have been exempt from registration tax since 1990 and from value added tax since 2001. Such taxes in Norway can be up to half or as much as the full initial (pre-tax) vehicle purchase price. Main policy drivers of EV adoption to date Significant fiscal incentives spurred the initial uptake of electric light- duty vehicles (LDVs) and underpinned the scale up in EV manufacturing and battery industries. The measures – primarily purchase subsidies, and/or vehicle purchase and registration tax rebates – were designed to reduce the price gap with conventional vehicles. Such measures were implemented as early as the 1990s in Norway,2 in the United States in 2008 and in China in 2014. Gradual tightening of fuel economy and tailpipe CO2 standards has augmented the role of EVs to meet the standards. Today, over 85% of car sales worldwide are subject to such standards. CO2 emissions standards in the European Union played a significant role in promoting electric car sales, which in 2020 had the largest annual increase to reach 2.1 million. Some jurisdictions are employing mandatory targets for EV sales, for example for decades in California3 and in China since 2017. Convenient and affordable publicly accessible chargers will be increasingly important as EVs scale up. To help address this, governments have provided support for EV charging infrastructure through measures such as direct investment to install publicly accessible chargers or incentives for EV owners to install charging 3 A number of other US states follow the California ZEV mandate (Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington). Canadian provinces Québec and British Columbia adopted the mandate in 2020. about:blank about:blank https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020 https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020 https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020 https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020 https://webstore.iea.org/nordic-ev-outlook-2018 https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-bill/6049 http://nmg.mof.gov.cn/lanmudaohang/zhengcefagui/201408/t20140818_1128129.htm https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-vehicle-program/about https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/changementsclimatiques/vze/index-en.htm https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/electricity-alternative-energy/transportation-energies/clean-transportation-policies-programs/zero-emission-vehicles-act Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 45 Electric vehicle policies IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . points at home. In some places building codes may require new construction or substantial remodels to include charging points, for example in apartment blocks and retail establishments. Efforts by cities to offer enhanced value for EVs has encouraged sales even outside of urban areas. Such measures include strategic deployment of charging infrastructure, and putting in place preferential/prohibited circulation or access schemes such as low- and zero-emission zones or differentiated circulation fees. Such measures have had a major impact on EV sales in Oslo and a number of cities in China. Broader and more ambitious policy portfolios to accelerate the transition Making the 2020s the decade of transition to EVs requires more ambition and action among both market leaders and followers. In markets that demonstrated significant progress in the 2010s, a primary direction in 2021 and beyond should be to continue to implement and tighten, as well as to broaden, regulatory instruments. Examples include the European Union CO2 emissions regulation for cars and vans, China’s New Energy Vehicles (NEV) mandate or California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. 4 For example, Sri Lanka applies significantly differentiated import taxes for conventional versus electric and hybrid second-hand vehicles. As a result, it is recognised for its high number of hybrid and electric vehicles. Mauritius is taking a similar approach. Near-term efforts must focus on continuing to make EVs competitive and gradually phasing out purchase subsidies as sales expand. This can be done via differentiated taxation of vehicles and fuels, based on their environmental performance, and by reinforcing regulatory measures that will enable the clean vehicle industry to thrive. In the long term, realising the full potential for EVs to contribute to cut vehicle emissions requires integration of EVs in power systems, decarbonisation of electricity generation, deployment of recharging infrastructure and manufacturing of sustainable batteries. Countries that currently deploy limited numbers of electric cars can profit from the lessons learned and advances already made in automotive and battery technology to support the production and uptake of EVs. Product innovation and the expertise developed in the charging services industry will also be beneficial for emerging economies. But they will also need to significantly tighten fuel economy and emissions standards. Emerging economies with large markets for second-hand imported cars can use policy levers to take advantage of electric car models at attractive prices, though they will need to place particular emphasis on implications for electricity grids.4,5 To date, more than 20 countries have announced the full phase-out of internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales over the next 5 In Africa, 60% of LDVs in circulation are imported second-hand vehicles, primarily from EU countries, Japan and United States. https://www.iea.org/reports/ev-city-casebook https://webstore.iea.org/nordic-ev-outlook-2018#:%7E:text=The%20report%20assesses%20the%20current,frameworks%20in%20supporting%20these%20developments. https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en#:%7E:text=Regulation%20(EU)%202019%2F631%20sets%20new%20EU%20fleet%2D,and%20for%20newly%20registered%20vans.&text=Cars%3A%2015%25%20reduction%20from%202025,31%25%20reduction%20from%202030%20on https://bzxx.miit.gov.cn/bzxx/reply/detail?id=8a828384643af2700165315026ea2387&appellateId=8a828384643af2700165315026ea2387 https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-vehicle-program/about https://unece.org/DAM/trans/doc/2017/itc/UNEP-ITC_Background_Paper-Used_Vehicle_Global_Overview.pdf https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-trade-used-vehicles-report Global EV Outlook 2021 PAGE | 46 Electric vehicle policies IE A . A ll rig ht s re se rv ed . 10‑ 30 years, including emerging economies such as Cabo Verde, Costa Rica and Sri Lanka. Moreover, more than 120 countries (accounting for around 85% of the global road vehicle fleet, excluding two/three-wheelers) have announced economy-wide net-zero emissions pledges that aim to reach net zero in the coming few decades. Policy attention and actions need to broaden to other transport modes, in particular commercial vehicles – light-commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-duty trucks, and buses – as they have an increasing and disproportionate impact on energy use, air pollution and CO2 emissions. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles represent 5% of all four-wheeled road vehicles in circulation but almost 30% of CO2 emissions. Progress in batteries has led to rapid commercialisation in the past few years of more and more models in ever heavier weight segments and with increasing ranges. In 2020, California was the first to propose a ZEV sales requirement for heavy-duty trucks. The Advanced Clean Truck Regulation is due to take effect from 2024. The Netherlands and a number of other countries are implementing zero-emission commercial vehicle zones and pioneering deployment efforts. Although this is a “hard-to-abate” sector and there are competing decarbonisation pathways (including hydrogen and biofuels), the electrification of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles is increasingly recognised as a promising pathway to reduce